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Verve Therapeutics, Inc. (VERV)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Verve reported Q1 2025 collaboration revenue of $33.0M, reduced net loss of $31.0M ($0.35 per share), and cash/marketable securities of $497.1M; cash runway guided into mid-2027 .
- Positive initial Heart-2 data for VERVE-102 showed dose-dependent LDL-C reductions (mean 53%, max 69% at 0.6 mg/kg) with favorable safety; FDA IND clearance and Fast Track designation strengthen regulatory momentum toward a Phase 2 initiation in H2 2025 .
- Lilly collaboration progressed (milestone payment for LPA program VERVE-301) while Vertex ended a prior collaboration; opt-in decision on the PCSK9 program expected in H2 2025 .
- Street consensus from S&P Global for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable; results primarily reflect collaboration revenue recognition tied to Vertex termination and ongoing services with Lilly .
- Stock narrative catalysts: clinical efficacy signals and clean safety for VERVE-102, FDA IND clearance and Fast Track, and clarity on the Lilly opt-in/Phase 2 timing .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Heart-2 initial data demonstrated compelling LDL-C lowering after a single infusion of VERVE-102 (mean 53%, max 69% at 0.6 mg/kg) with dose-dependent PD and favorable safety (no treatment-related SAEs, no clinically significant lab abnormalities) .
- Regulatory momentum: FDA IND clearance for VERVE-102 and receipt of Fast Track designation for hyperlipidemia/high lifetime CV risk populations .
- Strengthened balance sheet visibility: $497.1M cash/marketable securities and reiterated cash runway into mid-2027; Lilly milestone for VERVE-301 underscores external validation .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue mix remains non-commercial and dependent on collaboration recognition; Q1 revenue uplift included remaining deferred revenue recognized upon Vertex termination, highlighting non-recurring elements .
- Operating profile continues to be loss-making with high R&D intensity; Q1 total operating expenses rose to $69.6M (+11% y/y), generating an operating loss of $(36.6)M despite higher collaboration revenue .
- Program risk remains: Heart-2 still in dose escalation (0.7 mg/kg enrolling) and key external decision (Lilly opt-in) and Phase 2 start are in H2 2025, preserving execution/regulatory timing risk .
Financial Results
Notes:
- Net loss margin (%) = Net Loss / Collaboration Revenue (computed from cited values) .
- Operating margin (%) = Loss from Operations / Collaboration Revenue (computed from cited values) .
Consensus vs Actual (Q1 2025):
Segment breakdown: Not applicable (no commercial product revenue reported; collaboration revenue only) .
KPIs (Clinical/Operational):
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2025 is off to a strong start... VERVE-102... was well-tolerated and led to compelling, dose-dependent reductions in LDL-C... suggest a product profile that could fundamentally transform the journey... to a one dose future.” — Sekar Kathiresan, M.D., CEO .
- “With cash runway into mid-2027, we are well-positioned to achieve our goals... dose the first patient in the Phase 2 clinical trial of VERVE-102 in the second half of 2025.” — Sekar Kathiresan, M.D., CEO .
- “The IND clearance from the U.S. FDA represents an important step... Verve’s medicines are designed to deliver lifelong cholesterol lowering after a single course of treatment.” — Sekar Kathiresan, M.D., CEO .
- “We anticipate additional milestones in the second half of 2025, including final data... delivery of the opt-in package and an opt-in decision from Lilly...” — Sekar Kathiresan, M.D., CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available in the document catalog; management’s disclosures are drawn from the Q1 2025 8-K earnings press release and concurrent press releases .
- Guidance clarifications: timing for Heart-2 final data, Phase 2 initiation, and Lilly opt-in remained H2 2025; regulatory updates (IND, Fast Track) were newly disclosed and achieved .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable for VERV due to missing mapping; as a result, no Street comparison could be made for the quarter [GetEstimates error, S&P Global].
- Given non-recurring collaboration revenue recognition (Vertex termination) and R&D-driven losses, future estimate revisions may focus on timing/scale of collaboration revenue and the expected transition to later-stage clinical development costs .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Clinical efficacy and safety signals for VERVE-102 are emerging with meaningful LDL-C reductions at 0.6 mg/kg and clean tolerability; continued dose escalation (0.7 mg/kg) is a near-term data catalyst .
- Regulatory milestones (FDA IND clearance, Fast Track) de-risk elements of development and enable U.S. site activation and expedited interactions; Phase 2 initiation in H2 2025 sets the stage for broader clinical validation .
- Cash of $497.1M supports operations into mid-2027, providing multi-year runway to reach key clinical and partnership decision points (including Lilly opt-in) without near-term financing pressure .
- Revenue remains collaboration-driven and lumpy; Q1’s $33.0M uplift included remaining deferred revenue from Vertex termination, so investors should normalize for non-recurring items .
- Watch H2 2025 for three major inflections: final Heart-2 dose-escalation data (efficacy/durability/safety), Lilly PCSK9 opt-in decision (strategic validation/co-funding), and first Phase 2 patient dosing (development acceleration) .
- The narrative is tilting toward a “one-dose” paradigm enabled by GalNAc-LNP delivery and base editing; durability data from Heart-1 and dose-dependent effects in Heart-2 support the thesis .
- Risk factors remain around clinical outcomes at higher doses, regulatory pathways in broader populations, and collaboration dynamics; however, the recent IND/Fast Track and multinational enrollment reduce operational/regulatory uncertainty .